Has Generative AI Moved a Needle?

Whether you agree or disagree, "The Register" suggests the following statement about Generative AI.

Economists assert that generative AI has not impacted job replacement or wage reduction, according to a report by The Register.

Let's first listen to the prime suspect.

Chat GPT's position on the topic.

Where the headline might be valid:

• Short-term data: It’s true that widespread job loss or wage suppression due to generative AI hasn't shown up yet in macroeconomic stats.

Complementary roles: In many white-collar jobs (e.g. procurement, legal drafting, research), GenAI is enhancing productivity rather than replacing people. That can be wage-neutral or even wage-positive.

Where it feels a bit disconnected from reality:

• Creative, admin, and entry-level knowledge work: Freelancers in writing, design, translation, and basic coding have already reported shrinking demand and lower rates.

• Displacement without unemployment: Some roles aren’t eliminated but are “hollowed out” — fewer junior staff hired, more work automated, while senior roles remain. This can suppress wage growth or career paths without showing up in unemployment numbers.

• Lagging indicators: Labor market effects from tech adoption take time — often 2–5 years before fully visible. Saying “it hasn't moved the needle” in 2025 may be premature.

A human perspective (one among many)

I have to admit - I love the AI. For me, it's the handiest interactive library, an ever-available teacher, and an ample content writer.

But the problem is that many people believe Generative AI impersonates AI itself.

What about assistive and agentic AI? Isn't that a treasure chest of routine elimination and process optimisation opportunities?

I dare to assume that GenAI was meant to optimise researching, writing, and coding, so it did.

As I practice various AI use cases in the standard Office 365 environment, I suggest the following non-exhaustive list of AI 'needle-moving' opportunities.

AI Builder and Power Automate enable optimised workflows in Office 365 by enhancing productivity, compliance, and risk reduction across various business processes such as document screening, sentiment analysis, and internal communication.

Neither of these use cases is meant to shake the basis of our traditional working practices. Those only offer incremental productivity improvements and improved information sharing.

Agentic AI may or may not become the game changer. IMHO, it won't replace our jobs, other than the utterly simple and mechanistic ones.

If you have created any basic workflow involving AI, you may know that the workflow checker always raises a red flag if a human hasn't approved the AI-generated output. There's a good reason for that - AI hallucinates.

As long as that happens, I won't be scared of such a competitor in the job market, even though it's perfectly equipped to beat me hands down.

In any case, it is not our servant for handling "ugly" tasks, nor is it a threat to employment. It is a valuable supporter, and we must learn how to utilise it smartly and ethically.