The Odds of Landing a Job Offer

This diagram visualizes the journey from job applications to offers, illustrating how to narrow the applicant pool through shortlisting, interviews, and job offer extensions.

I have a sweet spot for some European countries, not for permanent immigration, but to work and reside temporarily. After years of effort and hundreds of applications, I reached only a few shortlists and received no job offers.

I always believed my expertise and education would quickly secure me a job. Now, I've decided to use ChatGPT for data mining and my mathematical skills and logical reasoning to analyze why my outcomes have been so miserable.

I'll also share valuable reports to help you understand the hiring process better.

The average number of applicants per job at the corporate level is 250.

This is where we could have stopped with an outcome of 0.4% probability.

For local candidates, this statistic is already daunting. For foreign candidates, the odds are even worse. Let's unpack why.

Drawbacks of employing a foreign candidate

As a European employer, I would see several drawbacks to foreign candidate selection vis-a-vis local applicants.

Higher Costs

• Visa Sponsorship and Relocation Expenses

• Legal and Administrative Costs.

Longer Hiring Process

• Visa Processing Delays

• Recruitment Time.

Legal Risks

• Compliance Challenges

• Employment Restrictions.

Cultural and Language Barriers

• Integration Challenges

• Communication Issues.

Retention Risks

• Higher Turnover

• Dependence on Visa.

Public and Employee Perception

• Local Hiring Preferences

• Internal Resistance.

Limited Local Market Knowledge

• Lack of Local Networks

• Learning Curve.

Given these factors, we can assume foreign candidates have one-third the chance of selection compared to locals.

Employers interview an average of six candidates for each job vacancy.

Assume two out of six shortlisted candidates are foreigners.

Individual Probabilities

Let's say one foreign candidate has a probability of x; the local one has 3x.

We have four locals and two foreigners so we can compile an equation:

4 x 3x + 2 * x = 1, or x = 1/14 = 7,1%

A foreign candidate has a 7.1% chance, while a local candidate has a 21.3% chance.

Hiring success probability

These individual probabilities, multiplied by the chance of making the shortlist (6/250), are 0.17% and 0.51%, respectively.

This differs from the initial 0.4% calculation but seems achievable (1 in 583) until we add another parameter.

On average, 16 per cent of SMEs reported hiring from outside the EU

I sought large corporations to work globally and rely on established processes. Naturally, they hire more actively than SMEs, approximately 25%.

The final step is to consider the chance of applying to a company that hires from outside the EU: 25% * 0.17% = 0.043% (1 in 2,332).

Getting a job offer is like winning a mid-tier lottery prize

In lotteries, odds of 1 in 2,332 are relatively favourable, corresponding to mid-tier prizes.

For example:

UK National Lottery (Lotto)

• Match 4 Numbers: The odds are approximately 1 in 2,180, with an average prize of £140.

EuroMillions

• Match 3 Numbers + 1 Lucky Star: The odds are about 1 in 2,287, and the average prize is €14.20.